in the short term, the very short term, i think actually some of the hype around the fiscal cliff is a little overblown, particularly because the first couple of days or week or so after we go over the fiscal cliff we won't see all that many impacts. all these tax and spending impacts take months to go into effect. it doesn't impact the economy until people start paying taxes, which could be several months down the line for most americans. on the spending side as well, spending is built into the cake so again you'd be looking at stuff that would be impacting the out months. for the first couple of months, no real specific impact. the big thing to worry about is whether wall street freaks out or not about the fact that we've gone over the fiscal cliff. if they do freak out, that could have an impact and cause a recession because of the wall street impact. >> and the premise of your analysis there is that we're looking at late deal or early deal. nobody really thinks that there will never be a deal. and so what you're saying, what, if it was three weeks out or late january or after the